REPORT: Recent postsecondary enrollment trends reveal the challenge of meeting projected demand for workers with degrees, apprenticeships, and high-value industry certifications. After years of stagnation, enrollment at Washington’s colleges and universities plummeted during the pandemic. Community and technical colleges (CTCs) lost over 53,000 students—a 24% decline—from fall 2019 and fall 2022, while public baccalaureate institutions lost 10,000 resident undergraduates (an 11% drop).
Washington’s economy is poised for significant growth, with more than 1.5 million job openings projected by 2032 in fields like education, healthcare, advanced computing, skilled trades, and clean tech—industries critical to long-term prosperity. However, this growth is far from guaranteed. Achieving it will require Washington to remain a hub for innovation and job creation while addressing a chronic talent gap. Seventy five percent of projected job openings over the next decade will require postsecondary credentials, yet only 40% of Washington high school students are expected to earn one.
If current trends persist, the state will come up short by nearly 600,000 of the credentialed workers it needs by 2032, including 301,000 workers with bachelor’s degrees. At the same time, more than a quarter million uncredentialed adults will face limited opportunities, competing for a shrinking pool of low-wage jobs while demand for skilled workers surges.
Recent postsecondary enrollment trends reveal the challenge of meeting projected demand for workers with degrees, apprenticeships, and high-value industry certifications. After years of stagnation, enrollment at Washington’s colleges and universities plummeted during the pandemic. Community and technical colleges (CTCs) lost over 53,000 students—a 24% decline—from fall 2019 and fall 2022, while public baccalaureate institutions lost 10,000 resident undergraduates (an 11% drop).
Encouragingly, enrollment began to rebound in 2023, led by CTCs, which have increased enrollment by more than 25,000 students over the last two years. Public baccalaureate institutions, however, have struggled to recover, with 2024 enrollment essentially flat compared to 2022. While the University of Washington (UW) has surpassed pre-pandemic enrollment levels, other public baccalaureate institutions remain under-enrolled.
Total postsecondary enrollment remains 12.5% below pre pandemic levels, with 38,801 fewer students enrolled in fall 2024 compared to fall 2019. This includes a 12.8% decline (-28,271 students) at CTCs and a 12% decline (-10,530 students) at public baccalaureate institutions.
There are bright spots. First-year enrollment at public baccalaureate institutions is recovering faster than overall enrollment. Enrollment of students of color across all community, technical, and baccalaureate institutions is up 1.3% (+1,580 students) compared to fall 2019, with enrollment of Black students up 18.8% (+2,895 students). While these trends offer hope, the recovery remains too slow to meet projected workforce needs.
